Weekly Crop Commentary - 01/16/2026

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. The USDA gave the corn market quite a shock on Monday. Most had felt the national yield was going to drop, but in fact, it rose by .5 bushels, confirming a new national yield. The bigger shock was the increase of 1.3 million harvest acres. This alone added over 240 million bushels of production. Less silage needed, with the smaller cattle herd, and less abandonment from flooding seem to be the main drivers.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom as we look through the numbers. Most felt that feed usage is too high, but they raised the bar by 100 million bushels. Most expected a rise in exports since our inspections do exceed the pace needed, but they stayed firm. The bean market saw no production adjustments. We did see an increase in crush and a drop in exports, which were not surprises. We continue to hear of a big Brazil crop coming. In fact, a private forecaster this morning increased their estimate to 179.28 MMT.

So now that we have that out of the way, what do we do now? We have to look at the stocks. Most of the increase in corn stocks is west of the Mississippi River or in the Southeast. Not real news. They did have bigger plantings in those areas year over year. Ohio actually has almost 10 million fewer corn on hand than the same time last year. The intrinsic value for corn here will likely remain rather strong. Bean stocks here are 15 million above last year, but local demand is still good. December crush released yesterday confirmed another 225 million bushel month. There is a lot of marketing year to come, but until we see some new news, the board will likely struggle to appreciate.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

The January WASDE report was released this week on Monday. It reported that corn acres were up 1.3 million and corn yields were up 0.5 bpa. It showed bean acres up slightly as well, while keeping yields about the same as reported in November. This data confirmed the massive crop, and markets fell after the release due to the fact that there is a lot of supply out there, but not strong demand. While we are seeing constant demand for corn, we are not seeing that in beans, and the total demand for corn and beans is not enough to handle the massive supply. We need an increase in demand and exports for both corn and beans going forward, but it is unlikely we will see that in the near term.

The EPA is supposed to be releasing final policies for biofuels by early March, which could benefit soybean demand. We are ending this week slightly higher, as grains are trying to recover from Monday’s losses. Lowering the price of corn and beans makes them cheaper and more desirable on the market, allowing an increase in exports and slowly bringing these markets back around to where we were on Monday before the report.

Yesterday, we saw Brazil cut its soybean production estimates by 1 MMT. This spurred bean markets up for part of the day yesterday, but with Brazil still shooting for a record crop, it wasn’t enough of a cut to maintain a strong rally in beans. I am not sure we will see any market moves solely from South American weather and production models, as they are not running into any major issues and are not predicted to for the near future.

We saw confirmation that South Korea is purchasing wheat from the US at about 92,000 tonnes. This is more than the 50,000 tonnes they initially expected. This news gave wheat a small move up in the markets today.

As always, it’s a great idea to start doing something for a new crop, whether that is contracting a few bushels of corn above $4 and beans above $10 or getting some targets in! Have a great weekend!

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

We went from mud and 45 degrees to lows in the teens and even a bit of snow, quite the swing.

Corn suffered heavy losses Monday and then bounced around mostly unchanged for the rest of the week before catching some wind today, gaining roughly 6¢ at the time of writing. It’s somewhat surprising to see strength show up late in the week, with cash corn hovering around $4.25. Exports continue to be the best on record, and one could argue that the USDA export number may still need to be increased. There are also rumors that another farm aid package could be in the works, with the House trying to get something passed. While any assistance is certainly welcome, it ultimately acts more as a band-aid than a solution. Mandated E15 usage would be a much more meaningful long-term fix to the downturned markets, but we all know that would take far more effort to accomplish.

Soybeans bounced off the early-week lows and managed a couple of days in the green. Flash sales continued to roll in, with China being the largest buyer of the week. As they approach their pledged purchase commitments, it will be interesting to see what happens next. Will they go completely cold and stop buying immediately, or will tariff reductions on consumer goods continue to generate enough incentive to justify additional purchases?

As always, feel free to reach out with any questions, or I’d be happy to schedule a meeting to discuss goals and current market conditions.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

We’ve reached the dead of winter with very little chance of above-freezing temps for the remainder of the month. Bundle up!

USDA’s bearish report let us know that the US produced a whopper of a corn crop: record yield (186.5 bpa), record production (17.02 bln bu), and the largest Dec 1st corn stocks on record (13.3 bln bu). The S&D numbers gave us a carryout of 2.23 bln bu, or a stocks/use ratio of 13.6%, the largest since 2019. This caused corn to drop nearly 6% on Monday, giving us the largest single-day decline since June 2023. This year’s crop is nearly 1.7 billion bushels bigger than the previous record set in 2023.

So, with a gluttonous amount of corn out there, what happens to cash prices? Corn demand, domestic and export, is still good, so basis will have to do its job to get corn where it’s needed and when. Will we get back to where we were before the report? Perhaps eventually, but probably not very quickly. Something to consider: we still have new crop corn above $4, so if another large crop is planted, that might not be a bad price for bushels that need to go to town from the field.

Soybeans also saw bearish data compared to what was expected, but not to the extent of the negative corn data. Bean numbers were 53.0 bpa yield, 4.26 bln bu production, 3.29 bln bu stocks, 350 mln bu carryout, and 8.2% stocks/use. Later in the week, soybeans saw a higher export sales figure than estimated, along with a good crush report, lending support to the bean market. As of this afternoon, we’ve recovered enough to be back to where we were mid-last week.

Markets are closed Monday for MLK Jr Day, but our locations will be open to accept grain. Have a great weekend, and go Hoosiers/Big Ten!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. Monday was the long-awaited Jan USDA report, and once again, we got some surprises, but not on the side we were hoping for. USDA found more acres and higher yield per acre on corn. Almost everyone I follow was in the camp of slightly lower yield and some reduction of acres. But with a 2.2 billion bu corn carryout, the market gave back .25¢ on Monday, and March futures closed the day at 4.21. As I write this, we are trading at 4.26. Like most of you out there, I was caught off guard. Now we move forward and see where we go from here, but it appears that we will stay in this range for the near term. The one positive I still feel is that because of the lack of corn here in NE Ohio, that basis will continue to firm up as end users try to pull corn out of the producer’s hand, and if the CBOT won’t do the work, then basis has to.

Soybeans were pretty much the same story. We saw the carryout increase from 290 million bu to a 350 million bu carryout. And with no problems to speak of with the South American crop, there is no big reason for the bean market to rally either. Over the next couple of months, we look forward to seeing what the farmer is thinking to plant for the 2026 crop year. I watched a well-respected economist’s webinar this week, and he says that we need to shed about 7 to 8 million acres of corn as we enter the 2026 planting season. History shows that we will see the switching of acres from the outer perimeters of the corn belt. The heart of the belt, for the most part, stays the same. My concern is that some of those acres will switch to beans, and if that is the case, we need to see more beans crushed for renewable diesel standards. Today, the market is still waiting to see what the EPA will do, so we are stuck in unknown territory.

One last thing to be thinking about as we march forward into the 2026 marketing year: let’s talk about having targets out there for the crop you still have, as well as the crop you are going to plant here in a couple of months. I have been around for a long time, and I have seen this before. What I have learned is that things will change at some point, and prices will move higher. But we also need to take advantage of price jumps when the opportunity presents itself. Give us a call to discuss what options we have to offer your operation. We have a lot of tools in our arsenal, and each of us here wants to help you maximize your opportunities. Have a great weekend!!!!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

The markets had quite the reaction to Monday’s report, starting off the week with a negative tone. Numbers were slightly different than what was expected. We saw corn yields increase by .5 bpa when a decrease by 2 bpa was estimated. There was also an increase in U.S. corn acres harvested by 1.3 million acres, and corn feed usage of was increased, as well. Immediately after the report, corn futures fell more than 15¢, and by the close of the day, corn was down 24¢. Soybeans followed lower, closing 13¢ down, while wheat finished the day 6¢ lower. On the state level, corn yield was placed at 194 bpa and bean yield at 53 bpa. Given these numbers, I think we will see corn struggle to rally unless we see an increase in demand.

Mid-week, soybean crush numbers were slightly higher than the average trade estimate, also a new December record. Additionally, wheat found some support toward the end of the week, currently up about a dime on the day.

Have a great weekend!